I know Californians who still believe the State can return to its former state of glory, and even have Republican officials again. I am not sure if they are depressed and are attempting to cope, if they are delusional, are on drugs, or some combination.
I would say I try to reason with them, and gently point out how they are wrong, but that is not the truth. For better or for worse, these people need to face the truth head on, and that requires being blunt, or as millennials’ say, “mean.” The truth hurts, and there are some truths in modern politics that are incredibly hard to swallow.
Over 75% of eligible adults are registered to vote in California (19 million registered voters). Nearly 45% of them affiliate as Democrats. Independents are the second largest block, with 25.5% of registered voters identify as such. Only 25.1% identify as Republicans.
Of likely voters, 47% are Democrats, and 21% are Independents. Less than 30% are Republicans. Independent voters are more likely to lead Democrat (43%) than Republican (29%). Of Independent voters, 32% of them identify as liberal, and 29% identify as conservative.
If we take the 19 million registered voters, we have roughly 8,436,000 Democrats, and 4,769,000 Republicans. When you factor for how Independents are likely to vote, you have Democrat’s with 10,519,350 votes compared to the Republican’s 6,174,000. This produces a deficit of 4,345,350. Even if unaffiliated Independents vote Republican, they still have a deficit of 2,988,750 votes.
In 2016, Clinton received 8,753,788 votes, while Trump received 4,483,810 votes. Clinton pulled in Independents, and plausibly some Republicans. Republican Presidential candidates have been pulling fewer votes in California each year since W. Bush received 5,509,826 votes in 2004.
Republicans could make up their vote deficit out of the approximately 6,333,333 Californians who are eligible to vote, but aren’t registered. Common sense will tell us they are most likely overwhelmingly democrat. This is not changing anytime soon, either. Of “minority” communities, Republicans have the highest registration in the hispanic community, with 11% of likely voters registered as Republican (8% in the asian community, and 1% in the black community).
For a Republican to win a state-wide office in California, they have to capture nearly every single Independent voter, have record low turnout, and rely on defection from the Democrat party (there is no evidence of this happening anytime ever).
Nationwide, fewer people are identifying as Republican. Black and hispanic identification has remained constant, while fewer asians identify as Republican. Texas will follow California in becoming a blue state: less than half the population is non-hispanic white, and every day more people come from blue states, and across the border. The Texas Democrat party panders to the hispanic community to the extreme. Texas urban centers and suburbia continue to grow, and as trends tell us, these communities go blue over time.
2020 may be the last time a Republican gets electoral votes from Texas. When Texas goes blue, Republicans will never win another presidential election, unless they pulled in States such as Nevada, Colorado, Florida, plus a midwest blue state. (Florida will be solid blue very soon, just like Virginia). Currently, it only takes 19 states for Democrats get 265 electoral votes, with only one of those States being a swing State. (Theoretically, you can win the electoral college with only 12 states. At some point in the future I will discuss the need to force states to distribute their electoral votes by congressional district, which will make presidential races more competitive, and break up electoral mega-States).
The writing is on the wall, as Beto’s failed run showed us – Democrats picked up many local seats, especially in Houston.
Demographics is destiny, and it seems that the destiny of California, Texas, and the rest of America in the near future, is to be an uncontested democrat-socialist nation.